We are all former students at Lakenheath High School and other public schools in East Anglia. We were in school in the 70s and 80s and drank deeply from the well of British culture of those decades - the pints, the telly, and of course the footie!
After the long, torturous campaign process full of polls and media blather, the day for the voters is actually upon us. Naturally, I'm glued to the news today and I'm going to stick my neck out and predict wins for John Edwards and Mike Huckabee today.
posted by gatorbob @ 2:29 PM
We are all former students at Lakenheath High School and other public schools in East Anglia. We were in school in the 70s and 80s and drank deeply from the well of British culture of those decades - the pints, the telly, and of course the footie!
33 Comments:
The latest polls out of Iowa have it:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
and...
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
But Iowa is incredibly difficult to call because of the arcane rules that govern this foible of our "democratic" process. Obama's support comes from young, typically flaky, students, whereas Edwards has lived in Iowa for two years and can count on the support of a lot of rural geezers. Each candidate needs to meet the standard of a minimum of 15% support of the caucus. Caucusers basically meet at the caucus spot and literally peel off to various corners of the room to indicate their support. If a group of say, one hundred, has groups of less than fifteen people for the marginal candidates, they either have to cajole others into jumping from other camps or they give up and throw their support two a second choice. Some candidates, such as Kucinich, have already indicated that they want their caucusers to pitch in for a particular candidate - Dennis is stumping for Obama.
All in all, it should be a thrilling night.
Of course, I'm all about hoping that that nutbag Mike Huckabee wins tonight. He would be a dream candidate for the Dems to meet and I honestly can't see them blowing a final campaign in the current climate against an idiot like Huck. Of course, a Huckabee win tonight hurts Romney the most and might benefit Giuliani in the long run.
On the Dem side, Clinton is praying for an Edwards win and a second place slot. If Obama wins and particularly if she places in third, she's in big BIG trouble.
I still see the establishment candidates - Clinton and Giuliani - as the most likely nominees.
Latest polling at 7 p.m. has Huckabee out in the lead by as much as 4-6 points. Pinch me!
The first numbers out of Iowa:
Edwards - 39%
Clinton - 38%
Obama - 36%
Wow!
I don't agree that Huckabee is who the Dems want to see come November. Putting his past ramblings, he's the the closest to the center now of all the Republican candidates except McCain and he is far and away the most telegenic of them (better than Romney because Romney is patently FAKE). In fact, I like the Dems chances against anyone BUT Huckabee.
Watching the CSPAN Dem feed from Des Moines' Teddy Roosevelt HS . . . this candidate preference group polling is wacky . . . the Richardson group was not viable and they seem to be meandering over to the Obama group .. . . every time they count someone says "we need to count again"
Hey Trev. Good to hear from you. I may be wrong but Huckabee has major problems with a lot of the Republican and libertarian types down here that I talk to. That is, they're looking for a fiscal conservative and a social liberal. Huckabee's the opposite - a big spending troglodyte. I could see a lot of center right folks either staying home or pitching in with a centrist like Clinton or Obama.
He's the one I want.
Now with 25% of caucuses reporting:
Edwards 33%
Clinton 32%
Obama 32%
It's a squeaker.
I'm with you, Trev. The polling seems very wacky. I'm following the actual numbers that are dribbling in from the precincts. The "entrance polls" seem really unreliable as the picture changes immediately once the voting starts. There's a lot of wheeling and dealing that goes on in the rooms and Edwards people seem to be the people who know what they're doing.
From the Daily Kos:
486 of 1,781 districts reporting
Edwards 32.53
Obama 32.47
Clinton 32.25
Richardson 1.85
Biden 0.76
Dodd 0.10
Uncommitted 0.03
First numbers out of Iowa for the GOP:
Huckabee 30%
Romney 24%
Thompson 18%
McCain 15%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 2%
Wow, NBC News has called it for Huckabee at the top of the hour. It seems premature with only 15% in:
Huckabee - 36%
Romney - 23%
Obama has snuck in front.
630 of 1,781 districts reporting
Obama 33.20
Edwards 32.09
Clinton 31.77
Richardson 1.79
Biden 1.02
Dodd 0.07
Uncommitted 0.05
Boy, those Dem numbers couldn't be closer, could they? . . . Romney will be toast after this if he doesn't win New Hampshire . . .
You're right, you can barely floss between them. Three way virtual tie. The news is much worse for Romney who's still around 25% of the vote after spending a boatload. If he loses on Tuesday, there might be no way back for him.
750 of 1,781 districts reporting
Dems
Obama 33.48
Edwards 31.97
Clinton 31.76
Richardson 1.73
Biden 0.96
Dodd 0.06
Uncommitted 0.04
GOP:
269 of 1,781 districts reporting
Huckabee 36
Romney 23
Thomspon 14
McCain 12
Paul 11
Giuliani 3
Interesting, McCain seems to be picking up some support as the evening wears on. He might be the big story going into NH, where he won big eight years ago.
How do you like Obama vs. McCain, Trev?
Dems:
809 of 1,781 districts reporting
Obama 33.65
Edwards 31.99
Clinton 31.63
Richardson 1.69
Biden 0.94
Dodd 0.05
Uncommitted 0.04
GOP:
450 of 1,781 districts reporting
Huckabee 35
Romney 24
Thomspon 14
McCain 12
Paul 11
Giuliani 4
Obama now pulling ahead:
943 of 1,781 districts reporting
Obama 34.31
Edwards 31.62
Clinton 31.24
Richardson 1.74
Biden 1.02
Dodd 0.04
Uncommitted 0.03
I think all of the top 3 Dems take out of the Republican challengers, except, as noted above, I think Huckabee gives us a close fight . . . Who do you see as the running mate for each of the top 3 Dems? . . .Edwards willing to take on that role again, you think? . . . Just finished watching Ray Hudson's heavenly description of Riquelme's talents.
This is going to be a sad night for the Hillary camp if she can't scratch and claw her way over Edwards . . .
Glad you enjoyed the Ray Hudson. As he would say, Obama's like a great Jedi Knight slicing through the Clinton camp...
In any case, I'm not sure that Edwards gets the nod this time because of his more fiery rhetoric about the corruption within his party this time around. If Clinton wins, Obama's the obvious choice. If won't work the other way, though. Edwards might choose Obama too. Who would Obama choose - I have no idea.
Romney scares me more than Huckabee. He's the only one who comes close to putting together the kind of big tent coalition that Bush put together. Wall Street hates Huck, so do the anti-taxers. That's a big blow for the GOP. There is still a ruling class in this country and they ain't evangelical Christians, despite the media hype.
You're right - bad night for Hillary. If she gets beat on Tuesday, she'll definitely lose South Carolina and it'll be a long way back.
Good chatting with you, Gator B, I need to get some reading in before bed . . . 6:45 am comes around awfully quickly . . .
McCain's already doing the concession speech, trying to be graceful in his fourth place spot. He's spinning it that Iowans can't be bought and that he'll be the winner over Romney in NH. Interesting to see Republicans get all populist on us.
Great talking to you, mate. See you at the weekend for the Cup?
NBC is calling it for Obama and Chris Matthews is playing up the Barack Hussein Obama immigrant tale stuff.
It looks as if the media will be playing up the multicultural America vs. traditional America bit. But if it's Huck vs. Obama in the fall the bigger picture will be future vs. past. It's as simple as that.
Obama extending his lead now:
1,546 of 1,781 districts reporting
Obama 36.78
Edwards 30.16
Clinton 29.92
Richardson 2.08
Biden 0.93
Uncommitted 0.10
Dodd 0.03
So that's it for tonight's race. The big winners are Obama and the Huckster. The big losers - Clinton and especially Romney. Edwards is just about done, having failed to win in a state where he's put everything on the line.
Interesting. I thought that Hillary would take Iowa, but I had a sneaking suspicion about the Huckster.
Why did you post a picture of the pizza parlor at the end of my street?
It was meant to represent the typical Iowa caucus place.
The big news the morning after the caucuses is that Democratic voting was twice that of the Republicans. That's excellent news in a swing state that went for Dubya twice.
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