The GOP Clown Car Rally Finally Reaches Iowa
My political brain says that tonight's Iowa Caucuses are a meaningless affair. Yet something - maybe my J-school background, maybe my commitment to civic education - about primary season is an itch that I feel compelled to scratch. If you're feeling the same way this evening, or just want to have a good laugh at the GOP's expense, drop by for a cocktail or two.
posted by The Blue Devil @ 6:36 PM
163 Comments:
I'll be switching back and forth tonight between the MSNBC coverage with the likes of Rachel Maddow, Chris Matthew and Lawrence O'Donnell on board a large panel of guests, and the renegade progressive coverage over on Al Gore's CurrentTV channel.
I had assumed that Keith Olbermann would be helming the coverage on Current but there seems to be trouble afoot at Current. Keith must be a really difficult character to deal with as he's been shunted aside for the "Young Turk" Genk Ugar. Odd going on there.
The caucusing began about half an hour ago at 5pm CST and will continue on until approximately 7pm CST/8pm EST.
The smart money has it at about a three-way tie between presumed front-runner and favorite Mitt Romney, libertarian weird uncle Ron Paul and "Man on Dog" afficionado Rick Santorum.
There should be plenty of surprises tonight, but I'll stick my neck out and make two predictions:
1. Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucus.
2. Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann will drop out of the race after polling outside the top four tonight.
Btw, Rolling Stone magazine has a timely and superb Matt Taibbi article out today: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/iowa-the-meaningless-sideshow-begins-20120103
We've just past the 7pm EST hour, so there should be just about 50 odd minutes to go in the caucusing. We should be getting some preliminary results in about an hour or so.
I've just switched over to the CurrentTV coverage, which seems a bit minimalist by contrast to MSNBC's glitz. It's just Genk Ugar in the studio hosting alongside former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm, with guests being Skyped in from the Networld.
I can't watch. There are too many small objects near me that would break my TV screen.
Hiya, Ed. I hear you. I don't know why I punish myself with these things but there it is. Great to hear from you, mate. I hope you and yours had a good New Year's.
We've hit the 8pm EST hour now and of course the results are too close to call. This usually takes a couple of hours of calculating. We should get some speeches by 10pm EST though.
Hello BD and Someone . I know I get MSNBC, but not so sure about CuurentTV.
I am on MSNBC with Rachel Maddow.
They are talking about Rick Santorum and his need to have more money available to run a more substantial campaign.He sure has made up a lot of ground.
My wife switched to CNN. it seems Paul and Romney are nearly tied in the early polls with Santorum in third place. Wolf Blitzer is commentating.
What will the media do if Paul wins tonight? Talk about what Romney needs to do?
First entrance polling results on MSNBC. The caucus goers are tilting to the older side, which is bad news for Ron Paul, who polls particularly well with younger voters.
Hello BD and Someone. The polls on CNN state that it is nearly a tie between Ron Paul and Romney.
McCain finished third in Iowa four years ago yet won the Republican primary. does a win or second place tonight equate to winning the Republican primary or is it still too early to tell?
Evening, MUR!
It depends on who wins. If Romney wins tonight, it definitely moves him much closer to the winning line, as he almost didn't compete in Iowa. It's not his terrain. And he'll almost surely win in NH next week.
If it's Ron Paul, it doesn't mean much. You're right that Huckabee actually won Iowa back in 2008 and didn't go anywhere.
If it's Santorum, it means a bit more and hurts Romney a bit because it will show his weakness among social conservatives, who are key on Super Tuesday.
Thank you,BD. I am learning quite a bit tonight. It's really informative.
We should rename it the Silly Party Caucus with Mr Sinlinlinghighpitched instrument Smith Blumpers
I agree - I've love to hear from Kevin Phillips Bong from the Slightly Silly Party tonight.
If I remember the skit then Instrumental sounds were some of the middle names.
CNN is showing how different candidates fare when facing the evangelical vote then how they fare with he born again Christian vote. Pie charts were used with both demographics.
Now Anderson Cooper takes center stage on CNN.
In all seriousness, I would love to see Ron Paul pull off an upset tonight. Any preference, MUR?
Ron Paul 24%, Mitt Romney 23%, Santorum 19%,and Newt 13% among early voters.
I would go for Romney because he is the only reasonable candidate, but that would dive him some momentum going into NH , so I guess I will go for Ron Paul based on your advice even though I don't really like him.
Perry, Bachman, and Huntsman should call it quits. They don't stand a chance.
I worry that Romney is the only candidate that might beat Obama. I'm no fan of Obama's but I don't necessarily want a Republican back in the White House after the Bush experience.
Huntsman's not really challenging here - he's rolling the dice on NH. But I agree with you on Perry and Bachmann. If they poll outside the top four, they're toast.
The latest poll shows Santorum and Paul tied at 24% with Romney at 22%. Newt is in a distant fourth place with 14% of the vote.
I agree BD. That is why I went for someone other than Romney. I know Ron Paul would make a fool of himself running against Obama. I feel the same about Obama, but would rather see him than someone for the Republican Party.
It sounds like a really low turnout unless they are at rural precincts.
Pure lunacy from Rick Perry. he talks about sending Congress home. That's where he needs to go.Texas is really full of morons.
It does sound like a low turnout year - I wouldn't be surprised as I don't know any Republican friends who are happy with this field of candidates.
With 8% of the precincts done it seems like almost a three way tie between Paul, Santorum , and Romney. Is Santorum an ultra conservative tea bagger?
Good point,BD.
Does this hurt Newt or not so much?
Ron Paul has 48 % of the Independent vote. That is miles ahead of the next nearest candidate.
Some more results coming in:
Paul - 24%
Romney - 23%
Santorum - 23%
Gingrich - 13%
Perry - 9%
Bachmann - 6%
How does this affect Newt's campaign?
Well, Newt got a huge bump about a month ago for no particular reason. After that bump Romney went full-bore after him with his SuperPac ads trashing Newt. It reduced Newt from about 30% to what you see now.
Newt's now banking on South Carolina - the third primary state - and then Super Tuesday in the South.
The only people who drop out after tonight are the people who had to do well tonight - Perry and Bachmann. All of the others stay in as long as the money holds out.
I think Huntsman drops after NH. Santorum will drop soon after. He doesn't have the money to hang in.
Gingrich has to win big in the South or he'll drop after Super Tuesday. Ron Paul hangs around regardless, because he doesn't need to run a big campaign. He's got grassroots support because of his ideas.
According to CNN, Santorum has the most votes from tea party voters and Romney, who is expected to be the Republican nominee has the least. That makes me wonder if the Tea Party is as crucial as it was a couple of years ago.
Rick Perry is just about ticking up toward 10% with 15% reporting. He needs to beat Newt badly. Otherwise he's done.
That sounds like Romney is the big winner. A virtual three way tie suits him.I wonder if Ron Paul is his main competition.
That is an interesting point about the Tea Party. I think the GOP has used the Tea Party in order to inject energy. In the end we're seeing again that an establishment candidate wins out - just like McCain four years ago, it's Romney this time.
Ron Paul probably only matters if he decides to run as an independent - then he peels votes off Romney in the fall.
Perry is so stubborn he doesn't when he's really done and he's not easily embarrassed. even if he got only 1% of the vote then he would claim that he's the favorite to become the next President of the United States.
That makes Ron Paul sound like Ross Perot which means he really takes votes away from republicans instead of Democrats.
Okay - it's a commercial break so it's crossword help time.
"The Little Mermaid fellow" (7 letters)
I've never seen that movie.
That's what I think - yes.
Interesting - nearly 20% reporting and Romney still placing third. That could be real trouble for Mitt.
Perry still ticking upward toward Newt. He seems to be taking votes off Bachmann right now, who seems all but out of it.
Sorry BD. I have heard of the movie , but don't know of any characters with seven letters.
No worries - I thought that you might have shared it with your girls.
I think he's only behind by 1% and isn't Iowa one of the more conservative states? Was Romney supposed to win by a landslide?
22% reporting now - still:
Paul
Santorum
Romney
Gingrich
Perry
Bachmann
I asked the girls , but they didn't know the answer. They knew of Titan , Ariel, and Sebastian, but none of those have seven letters.
Chuck Todd is emphasizing that a lot of reporting hasn't come back from Polk County, which is very conservative and traditional. Went for Huckabee last time around - would probably go strong for Santorum. More bad news for Mitt.
Thanks for asking, MUR. How are the girls doing?
WOW! Only 49 votes separate first from third place with 20% of the precincts reporting.They might need a recount!
Wow - big shift there: 25% reporting.
Santorum now 1st, Romney - both at 23%, Paul, Gingrich, Perry now up to 10.6%, Bachmann out of it.
They are doing really well. Thank you for asking.Jacquelyn located the book so we are checking.
We could be here well into the wee hours - how does your day look tomorrow?
Ha - thanks. I may ask you another one.
Would Flotsam work in the crossword puzzle. If not then Sir Grimsby where Grimsby would be the answer. scuttle may be a possibility too.
I have to wake up early so I may have to leave early. What was the answer to the clue?Which one worked?
No Problem,BD. I am here to help.
No sign of Keith Olbermann on the CurrentTV coverage. I wonder if Keith has already burned his bridges with his new bosses including Al Gore. He must be difficult to work with.
He seems that way. Kind of arrogant.
Yes! It's Grimsby for sure. That works perfectly. Cheers!
Also, I want to listen to the JHJ interview and answer your New Years resolution post.
Mike and Clark should ding Shattered Dreams to Rick Perry.
Indeed - that should be playing behind his concession speech.
30% reporting:
Romney - 23.3
Paul - 23.2
Santorum - 23.1
Gingrich - 13.4
Perry - 10.4
Bachmann - 5.8
It's so close between Paul ,Romney , and Santorum that they may need a recount.
It's a three way tie at this point.
Polk County , which includes Des Moines makes up 13% of the state's population. Therefore that could be really crucial in such a tight race.
Yes - I agree; it may well be going to a recount. One of the issues tonight is that there is only one vote. In the Dem caucuses, they allow caucusers to vote for a second favorite. That often benefits candidates such as Romney. But he doesn't benefit from getting spillover votes for being the second favorite for, e.g. Perry voters.
Right - I think of Des Moines as probably one of the liberal strongholds in the state in that the University of Iowa is there. But those people would all caucus with the Dems. Apparently once you cream off the sane voters, you're left with a lot of white evangelicals in Polk County. Go figure.
It should be only one vote. I don't agree with picking a second favorite.
That makes sense about Polk County.
Rick Santorum will be interviewed by Piers Morgan at midnight. Will the caucuses be over by then?
I doubt it. I thought we might have some concession speeches by now but not with all of this palaver going on.
The latest
Romney 24%
Paul 23%
Santorum23%
Newt 13%
I'll look forward to hearing your New Year's Resolutions.
Romney starting to pull away just a smidgen.
The vote counting seems to have slowed. Are they taking a break?
Probably. It seems like politicians get lots of breaks.
The Iowa Caucuses were decided at 8:35 EST four years ago. Now it is later than that CST and still nowhere close to being decided.
It looks like Perry will put all his eggs in the South Carolina basket.
At 45% counted, Paul is starting to slip away at 22% - Santorum slightly ahead of Romney on 24%
I don't think Perry's money will hold out until South Carolina
Now Santorum takes a slight lead over Romney with Ron Paul slipping into third place.
They are correct that Perry is really loaded. If he holds out its due to the money.
Santorum seems to be pulling away at 47% counted - 24.5%. He looks like this year's Mike Huckabee.
It seems that way. The CW is that he doesn't have enough money to run a sustained campaign.
Now 49% of the votes have been counted with :
Santorum 24%
Romney 24%
Paul 22%
Santorum leads Romney by only 350 votes with nearly half the state's votes counted.
Romney's okay if he places second. If Paul nips him into third, that's trouble.
I have a feeling that Romney will be in the top two and that Paul will end up in third.
That could well be. It would mean to me that Romney is almost assuredly the GOP candidate for 2012. It might also increase Santorum's position as a likely VP candidate. Romney is probably going to need a true blue conservative on the ticket as McCain did.
8F here tonight - brrrrrr!
53% reporting:
Santorum - 24.4
Romney - 23.8
Paul - 21.8
Gingrich - 13.3
Perry - 10.3
Bachmann - 5.6%
WOW! That is chilly ! I hope it's warm indoors. It is 49 F over here as I type.
Paul seems to be slipping after it was looking like a three way race. I would say that Romney will be the 2012 GOP candidate.Santorum will run out of steam.
I am going to take a shower and will be back in a few minutes.
Romney has suddenly jumped up to 25% with 74% counted. That's significant in that he's never broken the 25% margin in polling in Iowa or nationally.
Paul has fallen back to 21.4%.
Yes - my heat works well and is very fuel efficient. I rarely spend more than $150/month even in the dead of winter. And I use an Amish space heater in the bedroom while I'm sleeping for extra cosiness.
NBC is projecting Ron Paul as third place with around 21%.
They're projecting now that it's between Romney and Santorum.
Neo-conservative pundit Bill Kristol is now calling for Rick Perry to drop out of the race. Should be a matter of days.
I'll be switching over to the Daily Show at 11pm. Jon's been on vacay for weeks now; I'm looking forward to a new show.
With 88% of the vote counted , Santorum leads Romney by thirteen votes as they each have 25% of the vote as Ron Paul is in third with 21% of the vote.
I think this would be considered a successful night for Romney as he will get more votes as other candidates jump out of the race.
That is really efficient as my taxi driver told me that most Bostonians spend $600/month in the winter.
True - I think you're right, MUR. Romney wins big tonight. Santorum is clearly the Don Quixote candidate tilting at anti-gay windmills. Romney's in there for the long haul.
It is a new Daily Show and Jon has just used the Whitman's Sampler as an analogy for the GOP race, with Romney as the rubbishy plain milk chocolate one in the center of the box.
I will switch over to The Daily Show.
Yes! I love "Gitmo!"
Gitmo is crazy!
I new favorite character for your daughters?
And the Michael Steele puppet - I'm in love.
Fantastic bit - that took my mind off the craziness in Iowa.
I'm not sure. I think they might be too old for Gitmo. They have never mentioned his name.Jacquelyn was the master Anoraker with Grimsby!
I don't think I would want to live in Iowa after watching the caucuses and seeing them interview some Iowans.
Absolutely - please thank Jacquelyn for the expert anoraking. She's obviously a chip off the old block.
I think you're right about that. I could probably hang with Iowa City, Des Moines and Ames where there are big state universities - otherwise it seems a scary backwater.
Thanks,BD.I have been working very hard with her and teaching her that it's all about persistence.
Texas can be like that too!
Charles Barkley - a strange choice for guest on the night of the Iowa Caucuses, IMHO.
I agree.I guess it's to take people's minds off the caucuses.
My one regret this evening is that more LOBERS were not involved. I am sure there were many intelligent ideas between all the LOBERS.
Blimey - there are only 72 votes between Santorum and Romney!!
Definitely recount situation.
I think the difference was thirteen votes when 88% of the precincts had been counted.
I think a close race plays into the democrats hands.
Agreed.
92% reported:
Santorum - 24.7
Romney - 24.6
Wow!
Will this be our last chat before you leave for Belize? I will be teaching when we play at SJP tomorrow.
A photo finish in Iowa!
well stated by Colbert.
An interesting quote by Huntsman!
I'll be around for tomorrow's festivities but perhaps we won't have a chance until until my Belizean adventures.
Unfortunately, I probably won't be around as I will be teaching.
No worries - I hope to chip in at the end of the thread on Saturday's FA Cup 3rd Round.
Wait a minute - I think there is one FA Cup 3rd Round match on Friday, isn't there?
Yes. Liverpool vs Oldham is on Friday.
I'll be around for that one. You?
Unfortunately I will be teaching at that time too. I am only free Thursday and there are no matches that day.
I should be around for the second half of the Dahlgren Derby on Monday.
Me too - I hope.
Kim Jong-il is Kim Jong-dead - nice gag.
Do you want to post the thread for that one?
Boom Boom Basil, Colbert!
Yeah - I should probably do that one.
I might have to post a vid of the famous Allan Clarke goal that won the 1972 Cup Final.
Brilliant ! I think it was that long range header. Go for it!
He was right around the penalty spot.
Santorum still in the lead by about 110 votes with 96% reporting.
I have enjoyed chatting with you, but I am needing to perform two other LOB duties before I go to Bedfordshire to check on my ill aunt. I will listen to the JHJ interview and do my New Years Resolutions. I wish you a good night!
Cheers BD!
Perry is apparently "heading home to Texas to reassess his candidacy."
He's done - have fun with Rick.
Cheers, mate. Have a great day tomorrow.
Santorum only 37 votes up with 97% counted.
Apparently there is no provision for a recount. The Caucuses are not a binding proposition. The delegates can do what they like at the Convention.
Lawrence O'Donnell is claiming this as a stunning win for Rick Santorum who spent a little over $1 million against kabillions on the Romney side.
So, that's about it - it's neck and neck and should really be chalked up as a Santorum win but not a knock-out punch. It would have been worse for Romney if Paul had managed to nudge him out of the way. Instead, he still goes into NH as the presumed winner and candidate. But Santorum has taken a mighty big step forward as a potential VP candidate.
That's enough for me for one night.
Cheerio!
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