Election Night Special!
Hello, good evening and welcome to Election Night Special. There's tremendous excitement here at the moment and we should be getting the first results through any moment now.
I'm bunkered in here in my election night special pod - live streaming Air America, five pages of maps and polls up on the Net, PBS coverage in the background. It's a big big night.
You all know what's at stake -
In the House - the Democrats need 15 seats to recapture the majority.
In the Senate - the Democrats need 6 seats to recapture the majority.
And I'll go out on a limb already and predict that the Democrats - though they like to throw these things away - will do both. I'll predict 25 seats in the House swinging to the Dems and exactly six Senate seats.
How about the rest of you?
posted by gatorbob @ 7:10 PM
129 Comments:
And here's how they'll do it. First, the House - here are some of the most likely and tantalizing flips:
1) Arizona District 5
*J.D. Hayworth (R)
Harry Mitchell (D)
2) Connecticut District 4
*Christopher Shays (R)
Diane Farrell (D)
3) Florida District 16
[open seat vacated by Mark Foley (R)]
Joe Negron (R)
Tim Mahoney (D)
4) Georgia District 12
Max Burns (R)
*John Barrow (D)
5) Illinois District 6
[open seat vacated by Henry Hyde (R)]
Peter Roksam (R)
Tammy Duckworth (D)
6) Minnesota District 6
[open seat vacated by Mark Kennedy (R)]
Michele Bachmann (R)
Patty Wetterling (D)
7) New York District 26
*Tom Reynolds (R)
Jack Davis (D)
8) Ohio District 2
*Jean Schmidt (R)
Victoria Wulsin (D)
9) Texas District 22
[open seat vacated by Tom DeLay (R)]
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R)
Nick Lampson (D)
10) Florida District 13
[open seat vacated by Katherine Harris (R)]
Vern Buchanan (R)
Christine Jennings (D)
11) Indiana District 2
*Chris Chocola (R)
Joe Donnelly (D)
12) Iowa District 1
[open seat vacated by Jim Nussle (R)]
Mike Whalen (R)
Bruce Braley (D)
13) Pennsylvania District 6
*Jim Gerlach (R)
Lois Murphy (D)
14) New Hampshire District 2
*Charlie Bass (R)
Paul Hodes (D)
15) New Mexico District 1
*Heather Wilson (R)
Patricia Madrid (D)
Now the Senate - here it's a lot more straightforward and yet much much tighter for the Dems. It could well end up a tie at the end of the night, but here's where I see the six new seats for the Dems coming:
1) Pennsylvania -
(R) Santorum
(D) Casey
2) Rhode Island -
(R) Chafee
(D) Whitehouse
3) Ohio -
(R) DeWine
(D) Brown
4) Missouri
(R) Talent
(D) McClasky
5) Montana
(R) Burns
(D) Tester
6) Virginia
(R) Allen
(D) Webb
The one swing state that may well go back to the GOP is Tennessee where Harold Ford, Jr. may just miss out. But these Senate races, particularly in Montana, Virginia, and Tennessee will probably stretch long into the night.
I'm particularly relishing the concession speeches from some of the more ridiculous or odious political figures. Perp walks are fairly satisfying but there's nothing to rival a good teary concession speech.
This is what I'm hoping to hear about the Senate race in Florida between Bill Nelson and Katherine "The Dragon Lady" Harris:
Announcer: Katherine Harris, you polled no votes at all. Not a sausage. Bugger all. Are you at all disappointed with this performance?
Let's hope that she'll have the requisite five layers of mascara on tonight so there'll be added sheets of color to the blubbing. Oh yes.
Most polling stations have now closed on the East Coast, with the exception of those wacky New Yorkers who are open until 9 p.m.
Two Senate results already in:
Dick Lugar (R) has retained his seat in Indiana. He was running merely against Green and Reform candidates without a Democratic challenger.
More exciting:
Bernie Sanders (D) will become the first avowed socialist in the Senate for more than a hundred years. He takes the seat in Vermont left open by previous independent Jim Jeffords.
Your thoughts, Karl?
Marx: "Ah, the worker's control of production...."
At 8 p.m. with more polls closing, the tote board for the House is Republicans 4 and Democrats 5. It's early doors, folks. Early doors.
The latest Senate result - and it's a pickup for the Democrats:
Sherrod Brown (D) has beaten Mike DeWine (R) for the Ohio senate seat.
In the House, the tote is at:
Repub - 7
Dem - 5
In Virginia, 25% of the votes counted and Webb is up 50-49%. Very, very tight there.
A flood of House races reporting just then. Now the tote is:
Republican - 9
Democratic - 21
Bill Nelson has been confirmed as retaining his seat here in Florida. Bill's not that great a guy but he's a whole hell of a lot better than Katherine Harris. Looking forward to seeing her concede.
House tote at 8:12
Repub. - 14
Dem. - 27
Yes! CBS has just called the Pennsylvania Senate race. Rick "Man on Dog" Santorum has been defeated by Bob Casey. That's the second pick-up for the Democrats in the Senate.
The Virginia race at 35% of votes counted couldn't be tighter - a dead heat. This one could go down to a legal challenge at the end of the night, especially if it's the one that swings things. Sir Trev, are you available for the recount?
CNN is announcing the first House pickup for the Dems - Ellsworth beating Hostettler in Indiana by a country mile. A good sign.
Hey Trev: Here's the latest from VA:
43.5% of Virginia in... (0 / 0)
G F Allen Republican 489,985 50.54%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 467,609 48.23%
Allen has picked up the pace a bit.
The live streaming Air America coverage has been quality; you can access it through the Itunes radio function or through their website.
That's what I'm hoping to. I'd love to see "Maccaca George" blubbing by the end of the night.
This just in - CNN predicts Menendez as retaining his seat in NJ. Good news - a month ago that looked tight.
This from Daily Kos:
52% of Virginia in... now I'm nervous (0 / 0)
G F Allen Republican 583,153 50.85%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 549,673 47.93%
I'm nervous - Allen's pulling away a bit.
Yeah, I think Maryland polls are still open because they had some problems at the polls earlier. That one could get messy because there were a lot of accusations of malfeasance earlier in the day.
Nice - Deval Patrick has won the Governor's race in Mass. About time the Bay State had a Dem back in charge.
Tightening back up in Virginia:
57% of VA in... (0 / 0)
G F Allen Republican 629,330 50.20%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 609,220 48.59%
Better but Webb has got to start picking up some territory quickly. Come on you Beltway voters!!
The Florida House delegation looks to be going solidly GOP unfortunately - even the facking Foley seat seems possible for the GOP to retain. Unbelievable!! I gotta get the hell out of this backwater.
The GOP spin right now seems to be that the Dems who are winning aren't actually Dems but GOP Lite. Nice try, but if this continues to go in the direction it's going, it'll be interpreted by everyone as a referendum on Bush.
Well, it's a bit premature, but KC just saw a job ad today for James Madison. And I could slide pretty easily into a teaching training institution after the big year I'm having. I'll be doing full court press when I'm up there at the end of the month.
This question just came through on Kos:
"Prince William and Frederick counties (0 / 0)
Haven't reported much... is that good or bad for Webb?"
What do you think?
Shame.
This just in from CT:
CT Sen (0 / 0)
14%
lieberman 50
lamont 41
schlesinger 9
I'd love to see Joementum sent home tonight, but it doesn't look likely.
Latest House tote board:
GOP - 37
Dems - 48
Yikes, I descend into the basement just in time to see Bob Bennett talking about how losing this election still hasn't driven a stake into Santorum. What a kill-joy. Hello boys, deep in the belly of the homophobic beast, here I am.
Eliot Spitzer has won the New York governor's race.
Klobuchar has won the Minn senate race.
Ben Nelson has retained his seat in Neb.
68% of VA in... (0 / 0)
G F Allen Republican 762,276 50.54%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 727,744 48.25%
Come on Jimbo! Bring it on home.
Lieberman re-elected. Thoughts gentlemen? Any lessons learned?
Heya Gooner, still basking in that Southend win? Lovely jubbly as Dave would say. Now let's finish off this rightwingers.
Yeah, the big Dems didn't come out for Lamont - they sucker punched him. It still means that the DNC leadership trumps the blogosphere when it comes to Dem politics, but the blogos are picking up some steam.
Fox News have been predicting that Joementum might hop to the GOP and perhaps pick up Rumsfeld's job.
Bill Bennett on CNN:
"You have not seen the last of Rick Santorum"
Oh please, let him be the '08 candidate for the GOP. Even Hillary might beat him.
Ben Cardin has been confirmed as a winner in the MD senate race against the odious Michael Steele.
Wow, how did that momentum pick up for Webb? Are you guys stuffing some ballots in there against Maccaca?
Latest House tote:
GOP: 57
Dem: 68
Who is Glenda Parker and what the hell is the IG party?
Dems just picked up another House seat in Kentucky!
Nice, maybe picking up another in Kentucky for the house total. Buh-bye Ann Northrup.
I'm watching CNN and they're still calling the Cardin/Steele race open?
Most all of the larger blocks left seem to be leaning for Webb. Chesterfield is done reporting and gave Allen a 20k buffer.:
Arlington (25 of 50 Precincts Reporting)
Party Candidate Votes V%
D Jim WEBB 23,173 71
R George ALLEN 8,957 28
Fairfax (199 of 226 Precincts Reporting)
Party Candidate Votes V%
D Jim WEBB 164,515 59
R George ALLEN 112,365 40
IL Glenda PARKER 2,692 1
Prince William (5 of 65 Precincts Reporting)
Party Candidate Votes V%
D Jim WEBB 2,593 54
R George ALLEN 2,124 45
IL Glenda PARKER 59 1
Richmond City (44 of 66 Precincts Reporting)
Party Candidate Votes V%
D Jim WEBB 24,068 73
R George ALLEN 8,757 26
IL Glenda PARKER
Virginia Beach (55 of 87 Precincts Reporting)
Party Candidate Votes V%
R George ALLEN 40,253 53
D Jim WEBB 35,265 46
IL Glenda PARKER 861 1
Henrico going to Allen, but not huge:
Henrico (65 of 92 Precincts Reporting)
Party Candidate Votes V%
D Jim WEBB 32,175 47
R George ALLEN 35,492 52
Independent Greens? Johnno, isn't that it?
Really, they called it for Cardin about five minutes ago. I was surprised because they had the polls open late there.
Excellent, 3rd pickup for the Dems comes from RI. Buh-bye Chafee
Independent Greens, eh? Give me strength. I'm all for Third Party voting as you know, but you've got to be a complete moonbat not to hold your nose for Webb in this kind of race.
Nice, he can take that blue-blood aristocratic country club Republicanism and stuff it up his arse. And Whitehouse is genuinely liberal unlike some of the Dem candidates this time around.
Interesting, Chafee nailed by his party affiliation because he's not pro-Iraq, hasn't followed the lock-step. Just a Republican on the wrong side of the tide.
I agree. This is no time to fart about here in VA. First time in my 16 years as a resident that there was a hope. Of course you hold your green nose and go Webb
I agree, based on my rough knowledge of the D.C. area, I reckon there have got to be loads of Webb votes left there. Unless you've got more moonbat IG voters out there.
Indiana!!! Donnelly just called a winner for the Dems! Slowly but surely picking up the heartland
I agree with you about Chafee. A lot of RINOs are getting caught in the "Get the Bums Out" tide in Blue states. I reckon Chris Shays will get tossed too in CT.
Yeah, and Ohio is almost entirely blue now. There are some pissed Ohioans voting today.
WOW!! More good news for you D.C. folks - Bob Erlich is out as Gov. of MD.
Oh, you should turn on the CNN and hear Bennett and Watts crying about Michael Steele now. Watts described Steele's mom as a domestic!! What the hell is wrong with that guy?
WHAT??? Erlich went down? Holy moley!
Latest House tote:
GOP - 78
Dems - 100
Looking nice.
Yeah, I'm loving the Bennett and Watts show - they're really choking on this stuff. Even better than Fox.
If Webb goes down in VA - we'll need Harold Ford to close that gap in Tenn.
VA with 84% reporting (1+ / 0-)
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 948,615 49.62%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 940,177 49.18%
G G Parker Independent Green 21,128 1.11%
Write Ins 1,790 0.09%
Bloody hell, I've just noticed that there are almost 2,000 write ins in VA? WTF!!??
This from Kos:
Probably, depending how red Virginia Beach really is and whether Hanover and Loudon Counties are deep red, or purple. A lot of outstanding precincts in Fairfax, Arlington, Richmond, Petersburg, Hampton , Newport News and Norfolk.
With 85% in, Webb's down 49.54-49.26.
Major precincts yet to report:
Virginia Beach (60 precincts)
Hanover County (34)
Fairfax County (8)
Arlington Counry (6)
Loudon County (32)
Prince William (55)
Norfolk City (12)
Newport News City (11)
Henrico County (28)
Craig County (11)
Richmond City (22)
Nailbiting time.
House tote:
GOP - 87
Dems - 107
Again from Kos:
"WEBB CATCHING UP!!! (0 / 0)
LOUDOUN COUNTY - details 14,139 (here's where it's happening)
Allen Webb Precincts Reporting
47.73% 50.92% 44.83%
STATE TOTAL
Allen Webb
956,216 950,981
49.54% 49.26%
Damn, CNN cut away from "Man on Dog" Santorum just when he was getting going.
I can't stand hearing all this shite about how Santorum still has a future in politics.
CNN cuts to the Santorum speech, sticks around until the key moment.
Rick-"I asked myself what I'd say when I got out here, and it ended up what I'd say either way: I want to Thank God.."
And CNN takes us back to the studio. Sinatra at the Grammys moment.
I KNOW!!! It must be just wishful thinking. His name is synonymous with something not so nice, and he has a future? Can it be?
Yes, Nancy Johnson - another country club Repub. in CT - bites the dust. Another Dem pickup in the House.
I'm hoping that AZ Kicker will weigh in on the Arizona scene shortly. That senate race is still in play to my mind.
Looks like CNN is gearing up to call for Allen, unfortunately:
This from Kos:
From 87% to 90% reporting in VA was real bad for Webb.
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,025,262 50.05%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 998,701 48.75%
G G Parker Independent Green 22,715 1.11%
Write Ins 1,965 0.10%
Air America reporting that the FBI is already investigating an orchestrated robo call effort by the Allen campaign to scare Dem voters away from the polls.
House tote:
GOP - 104
Dems - 120
Disappointing, but I'm holding on. That precinct outside Richmond, just hoping.
Better news coming in:
Virginia is going to a recount (2+ / 0-)
Webb 1,024,756
Allen 1,042,414
with 91% reporting, unofficially
Finally, after hours and hours, Mark Foley is slightly behind. Unbelievable I know that 48% of voters down here voted for a child molester but that's Florida.
Apparently the GOP was using the interesting tack of "Punch Foley" to get people to pull the lever for the GOP. It seems to have worked - friggin' morons.
That Foley race is unbelievable.
Yeah, hey AZ. Are the polls closed out there yet? How are you?
So far, the Dems seem to be cruising the House but running into snags in the Senate. VA is very tight but it looks like it'll go to Allen. Corker is up on Ford in Tenn. The Dems need one of those plus Missouri and Montana. Probably too much to ask.
House tote at 10:30
GOP - 116
Dems - 128
Dems at the moment need eleven seats in the House and three seats in the Senate to win back Congressional control.
Oh jesus, who let Kerry out of the house? And he's got laryngitus. Couldn't he have had a dirty night in with Teresa?
It sounds like Allen will claim a victory and they'll have to count the absentee ballots, probably go through a recount. Maybe some court challenges - could get ugly.
Speaking of ugly, it's Joementum time!
It was always an outside shot. Dems will win back some House seats in the Southwest but probably only that.
Now we can start talking about prospective Presidential candidates....
Not so fast Hillary!
Two more pickups for the Dems in the House, including a loss for Curt Weldon in Penn.
Weldon goes! Nice. Line up the DA to indict him!
Damn, Crist made it in the Florida Govs race.
I'll make a prediction here - Crist - next GOP guy out of the closet.
Arlington numbers coming in fast - the Allen lead is down to 11,000. Recount territory, definitely.
I'm off soon as well to watch Stewart and Colbert. 11pm Eastern on Comedy Central
Nice chatting with you, Trev. Keep your fingers crossed.
I'm gonna hang in while I tune in to John and Stephen. I'm hoping that something will shake out in Tennessee.
Me too. I like that Harold Ford Jr. guy a lot. See that Heath Schuler picked up a democratic talley in the House?
Yeah, they need eight seats now by my count. Should be fairly easy. We're not even beyond the Mississippi yet in vote counts.
Okay I have a little more faith now in Floridians. Negron - the guy running under Mark Foley's name - is conceding. But it was tight all night! Bloody hell.
Not yet. I'm still saying 25 pickups in the House, but I'm downscaling my bet in the Senate to four. I think Tester will win in Montana but I'm really not sure about Missouri, Tenn or VA.
Another Dem pickup in the House in Penn - it's been a really bad night in Penn for the GOP. Down to seven seats now. Nancy Pelosi is appearing on the telly every five minutes now - get used to her mug.
From Kos:
With 95.58% (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
taylormattd
G F Allen Republican 1,096,537 49.70%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,083,334 49.10%
Down to around 12-13K with a lot of Dem precincts left. It'll probably end up being 5-10K for Allen leading to a recount and much legal haggling.
I should also mention - for the historical import - that Robert Byrd won his ninth term. The guy's been around since Truman!
Virginia still tightening:
(95.82%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,683 Total Voting: 2,212,075 Voter Turnout: 48.56 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,098,659 49.67%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,086,778 49.13%
MSNBC already projecting Kyl winning in Arizona. Comments, AZ?
A bit early to start talking about Montana but with 3% counted:
Tester 55%, Burns 43% (0 / 0)
CNN has called the House for the Dems. Nancy Pelosi is the new Speaker - the first female Speaker of the House.
Wow, Dan Rather on the Daily Show. He's a bit dotty, saying that the Dems haven't taken the House yet - uh, CNN announced ten minutes ago.
Here's an interesting one - would you vote for McCain in a GOP primary for '08?
It's looking bad for Ford in Tenn:
With 82% counted - 51-48 Corker.
Webb just spoke from his HQ - he's not conceding. It'll go on for a few days while they do a recount and open up those absentee ballots.
Well you can see some of the field gathering:
Mitt Romney
Rudolf Guiliani
Sam Brownback
Jeb Bush
Newt Gingrich
My feeling is that he'd probably win handily in a general election but I don't think he can make it through a bruising primary election campaign because the party base is pretty far to the right of him.
Probably the same thing for Guiliani. I'd say that Jeb is your best shot - but he says he's not running so far.
VA has tightened to around about 5K between the two candidates. Those really were blue precincts left. Not much left to count, though. It'll be interesting to see if Allen claims victory.
Yeah, I agree but it seems as if the cultural right has the stranglehold on the process right now. GOP moderates are taking it in the teeth tonight. I actually feel a bit sad for Chafee. Just a little.
Here's the latest from Kos on VA:
Virgina state website has Webb 5000 votes behind with 63 precincts left. From CNN, we can add a 1400 net gain for Webb with the 38 Prince William County Precincts.
Then there are 25 precincts left:
1 in Virginia Beach
1 in Arlington
2 in Newport News
8 in Richmond City
2 in James City County
5 in Loudoun County
1 in Isle of Wight
1 in Halifax 3 in Fairfax
can't find the other.
3600 votes is NOT a stretch to make up in those precints. Probably 2500 just in Richmond
CNN has just announced that Webb is 2400 votes up in Virginia. An amazing turnaround. It would be sweet to see the GOP lawyers on the other side of a recount this time.
I wouldn't count Missouri and Tennessee in the GOP column yet.
Interesting that Chris Mathews just about called VA for Allen there but was scolded off of it by a correspondent. Showing his true colors there.
Interesting comment on MSNBC - Northern Virginia is racing to leave the Confederacy. After more than a hundred years, it's about time!
They're now predicting that Webb may end up slightly more than 1% up - will Webb then claim victory at some point tonight.
With Tester up in Montana that leaves a dead tie.
J.D. Hayworth loses in AZ.
House tote at 12:15 EST:
GOP - 201
Dems - 234
CNN has the Senate at 48-48 with four races left - VA, Tenn, MO and MT.
Tammy Duckworth has lost her bid to win a very GOP seat just outside of Illinois.
100% in Virginia, Webb Wins!
According to Drudge:
VA SEN [100% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,140,879 49.42%
D- WEBB 1,143,144 49.44%
Still within the margin of error - recount city.
In Montana - with 22% counted
Tester 54
Burns 43
At 12:30, this is what the Dems have achieved so far:
Senate +3
House +21
Govs +6
Missouri Senator Race
U.S. Senator Precincts Reporting 2446 of 3746
Talent, Jim REP 698,051 50.1%
McCaskill, Claire DEM 646,359 46.4%
MSNBC has called the Tennessee race for Bob Corker - 51-48%
Holy crap - Maccaca is on camera and he sounds somewhat down. I don't know what that means. This doesn't sound like a victory speech. Is he conceding? I can't believe it.
Now, here he goes into rights being enshrined by the Constitution. Sounds like a lawyer's in the house. This will go on for a few days.
MSNBC calls Allen's speech a "concession of the lateness of the hour." He basically just said that he's going to bed. What a wuss. If I were running for national office, I think I'd be able to stay up tonight.
3,000 votes have just been retrieved in Fairfax - how does that happen?
Man oh man. What is going on in VA?
Two thirds of Kansas City still to be counted. That could put McCaskill over the top. If Tester can keep up his lead, the Virginia race could clinch the Senate for the Dems or bring it back to a tie.
Wow!
I'm looking good on my predictions from earlier in the evening. The House has gone to the Dems and it looks like at least 25 seats will be theres.
In the Senate, it now looks like Webb will marginally win Virginia with those Fairfax votes in, McCaskill bringing in the AA votes in KC and SL and Tester cruising it in MT.
It looks like 51-49 in the Senate. A switch from Lieberman would make that 50-50 again, but I suspect he might well leave the Senate for a job at the Pentagon in the new year.
I'm hanging in there for a Conrad Burns concession speech. Hate that guy.
Nice chatting with you, mate. Get some sleep.
Well, I woke up this morning and somehow the air was a little
sweeter. It was - in the words of the "Great Communicator," like
"Morning in America." The House, The Senate, and now Rumsfeld the
Torturer has been made to walk the plank. And look at all of the
"firsts:" the first female speaker of the House, the first Muslim
elected to Congress, the first Socialist elected to the Senate,
nearly the first African-American elected to the Senate in
Tennessee since Reconstruction. If that's not the essence of
progressive politics, I don't know what is.
The struggle continues.....
And now it looks more and more as if the Senate's been taken too. Webb reportedly naming his "cabinet" according to the WP this am.
Still waiting to hear from Allen to concede.
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