New Hampshire!
It's the first primary of the 2008 season. I remember my first - in 1984 - when I went up to Nashua to stump for (gulp!) Gary Hart. This time around the poll's are predicting Obama in a cakewalk. The GOP side is a little closer with McCain hoping that all the independents won't sign up on the Democratic side to vote for Obama, so that they can tip the balance for him against Mitt Romney. Should be a thrilling night. Join me if you're watching.
posted by gatorbob @ 7:31 PM
42 Comments:
With 6% of the votes counted, Obama and Clinton are in a dead heat at 36% each, Edwards trailing. Boy, I bet Hills would like for all the lights to go out about now.
The polls are starting to close and both races are still too close to call.
Wow! MSNBC have called the GOP contest for McCain at 8:10 and the party hacks are chanting "The Mac is Back" in McCain headquarters. It looks as if he's nine points up on Romney, which must indicate that independents came out in decent numbers for him. That also probably explains the tighter than expected Democratic race.
Good news for Hillary so far, and boy did she need it. . . .Gary Hart, that's a surprise!
Hey Trev. Yeah, I was part of Hart's NH team as a wet behind the ears pup at BU. Good times.
That McCain win is great news and it's another dagger in the heart for Mitt Romney, whom I've always seen as the most dangerous Republican. This win tonight throws the GOP into total chaos. Romney is expected to win Michigan, Huckabee could take SC and then Rudy Giuliani is lying in wait for Super Tuesday. Great news!
What up with Hillary's showing? Maybe some, "don't tell Obama, I'm voting for mama" going on? . . . It's happened before, of course, in mayoral races where votes said going into the poll and coming out of the poll that they voted for the African-American candidate, only to do something else behind the curtain.
I'm pretty shocked too. The media's all been on the Obama train since Iowa so I assumed that he was going to take it in a landslide. But New Hampshirites are a cantankerous bunch and maybe Saturday's debate performance turned them off to Obama. He was very smug that night. Maybe Hillary's crying jag had some influence. Even I was feeling a bit of a twinge for her. Or maybe McCain scooped the independent vote from him. Hard to say. Hillary's four points up at present.
Romney has taken to the stage pretty early, obviously hurting and trying to stave off the negative press and try to spin it his way. Any way you slice it, though, it's a tough loss for a former Mass. governor.
Man, he looks terrible. If I had that guy's dough, you wouldn't see me in a jacket that looks as if it came off the rack at JC Pennys.
18.93% of precincts reporting.
Democrats
Clinton 39.53
Obama 35.94
Edwards 16.78
Richardson 4.45
With 25% reported, Clinton is now six points up. Wow!
Huckabee has taken the stage, spinning his usual downhome homilies. At least he has a decent suit on.
According to Daily Kos, the early Clinton lead is due to most of the heavily Democratic precincts around Manchester reporting first. This could go on well into the night.
With 32%, it's down to less than four percent. The race is closing now. Only about two thousand vote difference.
Still too close to call at 38% of the votes counted.
Meanwhile, McCain has taken to the stage with the Rocky theme in the background. Yeesh.
Clinton's lead now down to three points with 39% counted. What a squeaker!
Crikey, McCain really is a poor speaker. This is the most labored victory speech I've ever heard.
36.21% of precincts reporting.
Democrats
Clinton 39.57
Obama 35.95
Edwards 16.69
Richardson 4.60
The MSNBC guys are all cracking on McCain's speech. It really was horrible. Horrible.
Had to oversee Cal's homework and bedtime ritual and the PC is not proximate to the TV . . . I'm going to watch some of the coverage and then come back at ya! . . . I thought Hillary showed just the right emotion and might have also been aided by the heckler who stopped her speech with shouts of "IRON MY SHIRT!" . . . If I was blessed with breasts I would've voted for Hillary to "stick it to the man" after that . . .
41% of precincts reporting.
Democrats
Clinton 39 40,090
Obama 37 37,766
Edwards 17 17,145
Richardson 5 4,842
It's tightening. This one ain't over yet.
Good lad helping out Cal with the homework. Teacher approved!
44% of precincts reporting.
Democrats
Clinton 39 45,197
Obama 37 42,197
Edwards 17 19,387
Richardson 5 5,312
Down to a two percent lead.
It's a painful process, let me tell you, I keep hoping the reading bug will bite him soon . . . I remember fondly your and my reading competition in (4th grade?) Ms. Spears class at Feltwell Elementary . . . I have to see this McCain speech that has bombed . . .
Oh, it was horrible. The guys on MSNBC were laughing in the background while he was still on stage. Even Scarborough!
Hey, I remember that reading competition. But who won? That's faded into the mists of time.
46% of precincts reporting.
Democrats
Clinton 40 49,719
Obama 36 45,383
Edwards 17 21,178
Richardson 5 5,647
Here's Joel's blog post from the floor of the Radisson in Manchester on Hillary's bounce-back. . .
Posted at 8:49 PM ET, 01/ 8/2008
Back on the Floor at the Radisson
With 25 percent of the vote in, Clinton is winning. That confounds expectations. How much might this be due to Clinton getting emotional yesterday? A number of women voters told me that thought it made her more appealing. That's not a scientific sample, but listen again to what Carol Cohen of Bow, who had been solid for Edwards, told me today:
"Watching her let her strong façade crack last night on the news, and actually show how personally committed she is, was a turning point for me. When I got in the booth I spent a long time thinking about it, and I went for Hillary."
We were co-winners . . . can you remember our prize?
Okay, I have to run . . . I'll check in later . . . our prize was that she took us to get ice cream cones or ice lollies from an ice cream truck at the end of the school day . . . I got a vanilla soft serve cone with a flake in it (forget what they're called) . . . not sure what you had. . .
Cool, I do sort of remember that, but not the prize. What was it?
48% of precincts reporting.
Democrats
Clinton 39 50,090
Obama 36 46,086
Edwards 17 21,428
Richardson 5 5,722
Hillary got a bump there.
Knickerbocker glory
I think Joel's right about the emotional appeal. Perhaps the Angry Hillary might have helped too on Saturday night. I thought that she was dead and buried. Obama was getting crowds of 2K and 3K all weekend. That's phenomenal. But NH is unpredictable.
Wow, I don't remember that at all. Cool prize.
52% of precincts reporting.
Democrats
Clinton 39 53,636
Obama 37 50,146
Edwards 17 22,948
Richardson 5 6,301
Tightening again. This is making me dizzy.
And MSNBC is now predicting at 10:30 that Hillary is the "Comeback Kid" in New Hampshire. Game on!
Obama with quite an eloquent speech there. What a contrast with McCain's earlier. Night and day.
Watched Edwards and then Obama congratulate Hillary and vow to fight on . . . expectations mean everything . . . if those polls had only showed Obama gaining on Hillary and not beating her by 10 points then this result would've been aces for Obama, but b/c the polls showed Obama pulling away, the result is a big let down . . . I always liked Edwards on the stump, but Obama is in another class . . . I'll try to stay up for Hillary, she'll go on soon, I'm sure . . . did see the godawful Terry McAuliffe from the Clinton camp twice mention how his phone was ringing off the hook with donors looking to get on board the Hillary express. . . not a message most of us want to hear . . . as dumb as the day is long and it's been a long day.
Absolutely right, John. Should Barack really have been considered a shoe in in such a white state? It's Hillary's moment, though, and it's a tough win that will keep her going. Don't like her and sure don't like her camp, including the odious Terry McAuliffe.
Onward to Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina.
Anybody else notice how oddly swollen Hillary looks on the left side of her face. It's almost as if she were a victim of a bee sting. Extraordinary.
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